Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Odds to 45% by 2025 Amid Global Trade Tensions
Goldman Sachs has escalated its forecast for a U.S. recession, now estimating a 45% chance by 2025, amid growing global economic uncertainties. This adjustment comes in the wake of heightened trade tensions, particularly with the looming threat of a global recession spurred by former President Donald Trump's proposed trade policies. Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed to recent economic indicators and the potential impact of new tariffs as key factors influencing their revised outlook.
The possibility of a global recession has been further fueled by discussions around Trump's trade war, which could disrupt international trade flows and economic stability. The New York Times provided a detailed 'tariffs cheat sheet' to help businesses and consumers navigate the complex landscape of potential new trade barriers. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported a swift shift in economic outlook from solid growth to heightened recession risks within days, underscoring the volatile nature of current economic conditions.
As the world watches closely, the interplay between U.S. domestic policies and global economic dynamics continues to shape the future economic landscape, with significant implications for businesses and consumers alike.
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Are tariffs good for the economy?
There's little evidence that tariffs will improve the US trade balance. Meanwhile, there's a mountain of evidence that they put at risk the 15 to 20 million American workers in export-oriented industries, while driving up prices for consumers across the board.
What do tariffs mean in economics?
An economist answers: 'What is a tariff?' 'A tariff essentially is very much like a tax on a particular good,' says Professor Erasmus Kersting, chair of the Villanova University economics department. Kersting says these tariffs will lead to higher prices.
Is the US going into recession?
A March CNBC Fed Survey put the probability of recession at 36%, up from 23% in January. J.P. Morgan's chief economist put the odds at 40%. You can expect those numbers to rise following Trump's latest tariff announcement.
Could the tariffs be good?
Trump has argued tariffs will protect U.S. industries from unfair foreign competition and raise money for the federal government. But since so much of what we buy today relies on a global supply chain, steeper tariffs mean you'll likely see more expensive prices from the grocery aisle to your next car repair.
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