Goldman Sachs Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 35% Amid Tariff Concerns
Goldman Sachs has escalated its forecast for a U.S. recession, now estimating a 35% probability within the next 12 months, a significant jump from their previous assessment. This revision comes in the wake of concerns over potential tariff hikes that could spike inflation, stunt economic growth, and elevate recession risks. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have highlighted that the proposed tariffs could lead to a shrinking economy, with potential repercussions extending beyond U.S. borders.
The financial institution's economists have pointed out that these tariffs, if implemented, might not only increase the cost of goods but also disrupt global trade dynamics. This could lead to a slowdown in both domestic and international markets. The warning from Goldman Sachs has sparked discussions among policymakers and investors about the need for strategic economic interventions to mitigate these risks.
As the U.S. grapples with these economic forecasts, attention is also turning to the political arena, where decisions on tariffs could significantly influence the economic trajectory. The looming threat of a recession is prompting calls for a balanced approach to trade policies that safeguard economic stability while addressing international trade concerns.
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