Is Florida’s Next Governor Race Shaping Up to Be a Political Earthquake?
The 2026 gubernatorial race in Florida is heating up earlier than expected, drawing national attention as key figures position themselves in what could be a pivotal contest for the Sunshine State. With Republicans maintaining a stronghold and Democrats seeking a resurgence, this early jockeying raises questions about voter shifts and party dynamics in a state that has leaned conservative in recent years.
At the forefront is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a Republican from Florida endorsed by former President Donald Trump, who is actively campaigning and fundraising aggressively. Speaking to students at St. Thomas University in Miami Gardens, Donalds emphasized economic priorities, stating, "Now it’s about vigilance on some of those core cultural and philosophical issues, but now a focus on the economic future of the state." His momentum is evident, with polls showing him leading potential Democratic opponents by narrow margins.
A recent poll from the James Madison Institute, conducted May 5-7, 2025, among 1,200 registered voters, highlights the race's competitiveness. It shows Donalds edging out Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava by four points (38% to 34%), with 23% undecided. Similarly, Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, who has not officially declared, leads Levine Cava by the same margin. This suggests that while Republicans hold an edge, the contest could tighten, especially if Trump's approval ratings continue to dip, as indicated by a separate Civiqs poll showing his net approval in Florida at -1 point.
Adding intrigue is State Senator Jason Pizzo, who recently switched from Democrat to independent and confirmed his candidacy in an interview with CBS News Miami. Pizzo, a former prosecutor with a business background, positions himself as a pragmatic alternative, focusing on everyday concerns like infrastructure, education, and affordability. He told reporters, "We need somebody who can balance a checkbook, who understands finance... and can I really even afford to live here with property insurance?" Pizzo plans to self-fund up to $25 million, potentially disrupting the two-party dominance. Critics from the Democratic Party, including Chair Nikki Fried, have labeled him a "quitter," arguing his run could spoil their chances.
Experts like J. Edwin Benton from the University of South Florida note that Democrats could regain ground by addressing issues like the environment and housing, which resonate with moderate voters. However, Kevin Wagner from Florida Atlantic University warns that demographic shifts and Republican enthusiasm pose challenges. On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly, who switched parties, is also eyeing a run, setting the stage for a crowded and volatile primary.
This early activity, occurring well before the qualifying period in April 2026, underscores Florida's evolving political landscape. With endorsements, fundraising, and shifting alliances at play, the race could influence national trends, particularly if it reflects broader discontent with the status quo.
In summary, Florida's 2026 governor race promises high stakes and unexpected twists, potentially reshaping the state's direction. What do you think—will independents like Pizzo shake up the establishment, or will Republicans solidify their grip? Share your thoughts in the comments below and let us know how this could impact your vote.
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