Trump’s Tariffs Could Push U.S. and Global Economy into Recession, Warns JPMorgan

Former President Donald Trump's proposed tariff policies, if sustained, could lead the United States and the global economy into a recession, according to a recent analysis by JPMorgan. The financial institution has raised its recession risk estimate to 60%, highlighting the potential economic fallout from Trump's aggressive trade measures.

Trump's tariff proposals, which include reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods, have sparked concerns among economists. They argue that such policies could disrupt global trade flows, increase costs for consumers and businesses, and ultimately slow down economic growth. The proposed tariffs are seen as a continuation of Trump's previous trade war tactics, which had mixed results during his presidency.

Economists are closely monitoring the situation, as the implementation of these tariffs could have far-reaching consequences. The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is already affecting market sentiment, with investors bracing for potential volatility. As the U.S. heads towards another election cycle, the debate over trade policies and their economic impact is likely to intensify.

• Donald Trump
• JPMorgan
• Recession
• Tariffs

Detailed

Trump's tariffs — if sustained — likely to push the U.S. and globe into recession, says JPMorgan

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Related issues news

Is the US heading for a recession?

Many chief financial analysts, officers and experts share the belief that the United States will enter a recession during the second half of 2025.

What do tariffs do?

Tariffs and taxes increase the cost of your product to the foreign buyer and may affect your competitiveness in the market. So knowing the final cost to your buyer can help you price your product for that market.

What causes a recession?

Recessions can be the result of a decline in external demand, especially in countries with strong export sectors. Adverse effects of recessions in large countries—such as Germany, Japan, and the United States—are rapidly felt by their regional trading partners, especially during globally synchronized recessions.

What do economists say about the tariffs?

More certain is that Mr. Trump's tariffs will boost inflation, noted Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. Consumer prices could accelerate by 1 percentage point by year-end, he added, which would boost the inflation rate close to 4% from its current level.